Arsenal’s transfer challenge over striker issue: Alexander Isak highlights need for a killer but no easy solution in January

Mikel Arteta's comments about the Carabao Cup match ball dominated the headlines after Arsenal's semi-final first-leg loss to Newcastle on Tuesday but the most revealing answer of his press conference concerned the impact of Alexander Isak.

"I don't think he created or had any big chances but he was involved in both goals unfortunately with the two times that he had the ball in the box," Arteta said of Isak's match-winning contribution.

"That is what you have when you have the real quality up front."

It was unusually candid comment from the Arsenal boss, the not-so-subtle implication being that he does not possesses a striker of a similar level. Arsenal are of course one of the 25-year-old's suitors. His performance at the Emirates Stadium underlined why.

While Isak seized his chances, scoring the opener and setting up Newcastle's second with his only two shots, Arsenal ended up with nothing to show for 23 attempts. Their total of 3.09 expected goals was the highest by a Premier League side without scoring all season.

On the one hand, it is positive they were able to create so many chances without their most creative player in Bukayo Saka, and with Martin Odegaard clearly below-par following the bout of illness which limited him to a substitute appearance against Brighton.

But the lack of cutting edge has become a theme. Tuesday's game was the sixth of the campaign in which Arsenal have failed to score. There have been a further seven games in which they have only scored once. Only three of those games have ended in victory.

Arteta is under scrutiny. As much for his side's perceived dependency on set-pieces as their struggle to convert scoring chances. But he is not the only manager for whom it is a problem.

The percentage of games in which Arsenal have scored a maximum of one goal is in fact the third-lowest among Premier League sides this season. The issue is that it is far higher than that of Liverpool, the side they are battling to keep up with at the top of the table.

It is not new to Arsenal either.

Arsenal set a club record with their total of 91 goals scored in the Premier League last season but there were eight games in all competitions in which they did not find the net, seven of which ended in defeat. Eventual champions Manchester City only had four such games over the course of the campaign.

Arteta has constructed an outstanding defence. Their errors against Newcastle were uncharacteristic. But recent history shows the value of firepower, in addition to defensive stinginess, when it comes to claiming the biggest prizes - and that is where Arsenal are short.

Kai Havertz has proven an invaluable outlet up front. His recent goal against Ipswich was his 12th in all competitions and he posted strong numbers after stepping into the role last term, too. Gabriel Jesus, meanwhile, is on his best scoring run since joining Arsenal.

But both players are maddeningly frustrating finishers, something which shines through in the underlying data.

While Arsenal's supporting forwards have overperformed their expected goals to varying degrees over the last three seasons, even accounting for recent dips, their No 9s have done the opposite.

According to Opta's expected goals model, Havertz and Jesus have scored roughly five goals fewer than they should have, based on the quality of their chances. For Havertz, Tuesday's game, when he missed opportunities worth 1.13 xG, typified the issue.

The timing was particularly unfortunate given the exploits of his opposite number Isak at the other end of the pitch.

His goal was his 10th in his last nine games, his 15th of the season, and his 50th in 89 appearances in total since his £63m arrival at Newcastle from Real Sociedad in 2022.

There is no exact science to the art of goalscoring. But the best finishers typically score more goals than 'expected', often helped by an ability to convert the more difficult chances as well as the simpler ones, something which usually translates into consistent xG overperformance.

These players have a demonstrable knack for deciding marginal games and Isak is certainly one of them. The underlying data for the last three seasons shows he has scored nearly four goals more than expected, netting 44 Premier League goals from 40.45 xG.

It is worth noting that Wolves' Matheus Cunha and Brentford's Bryan Mbeumo, two of Arsenal's other reported attacking targets, have showcased the same ability.

Cunha's total of 24 goals from 15.6 xG gives him the second-highest positive differential among Premier League players with a minimum of 15 goals since the start of the 2022/23 campaign. Mbeumo, who, like Isak, scored against Arsenal recently, is not too far behind him in the rankings with a total of 31 goals from 25.69 xG.

Arteta is well aware of Arsenal's need for a finisher. His comments in his press conference after their Isak-inflicted defeat on Tuesday left little room for doubt. But identifying targets is one thing; securing them, especially in the middle of the season, is another.

Isak is said to be valued at £150m. He has little incentive to leave and his club have little incentive to sell as he leads their efforts to win silverware and return to the Champions League. Signing him in the summer would be challenging enough, never mind in January.

Cunha and Mbeumo are similarly important to Wolves and Brentford respectively and while the latter's contract is due to expire in 18 months, the former is in talks over a new deal.

Arsenal's other option is to look overseas. But the challenge of adapting to the rigours of the Premier League faced by newcomers, especially mid-season, is such that the club have generally favoured Premier League-ready additions under Arteta.

There is no easy solution, in other words. But Arsenal must do their best to find one even in difficult circumstances. The need for greater firepower was apparent even before Saka's injury. Tuesday's loss, and Arteta's comments afterwards, only emphasised the issue.